Anyone else note the significantly tightened numbers in Pennsylvania from one of the polling companies with the highest possible rating: A+,on Five Thirty Eight?
Monmouth University, with their three PA polls taken over the same period — 28th-31st August, show a Biden lead of only 4% among Registered Voters, and 3% and 1% among Likely Voters respectively, with men going dramatically back to Trump with a +19 percent lead among all male voters, whereas Trump only had a 2% lead among men in July. A high turn out voter model has Biden at 3% lead, a low turn out has him at 1% lead only.
It seems that, at least over the period of the RNC, the Trump strategy of targeting the white male non-college educated base in the rust-belt swing states, with red-meat race baiting and law and order bs, along with the strategy of disrupting vote by mail to lower voter turnout, may be working, at least temporary. How worried should we be? From mildly concerned ‘this is just a temporary sugar high in an otherwise stable political race’ to all out rocking in the corner ‘this is 2016 all over again, it is, it is’? Some Dem and Lincoln Project strategists think that every vote gained this way for Trump in the rust-belt, will cost him a vote in the sun-belt. Do we agree with that?
